A Bordeaux Rollercoaster: The 2023 Vintage

Being one of the most elastic markets in the world of fine wine, Bordeaux can be a bit of a rollercoaster from year to year. But as opposed to waiting in line for the thrill ride, the U.S. consumer has recently had the luxury of getting on the ride whenever they want. The question now is whether Bordeaux has an experience that’s exciting enough for folks to line up for, if they can capture the attention of new thrill seekers, or if the ride itself is outdated and needs to be replaced.

The first thing that always needs to be considered is what makes futures essential, and the recipe seems to be creating a clear buy-now imperative. But how do you make buying futures easy, accessible, and opportunistic? At the heart of it, pricing should be the thing that makes folks believe they’ll never get access at that rate again. But seldom does that happen. 2019 is the best recent example of this working well–the wines felt like such genuine deals. The idea that collectors could experience reference-point properties at all-too-reasonable prices gave the imperative to strike early, plug in, and not miss out.

But regardless of how well the 2019s sold, we have not seen any intention to match that energy since then–2020s inevitably went up, 2021s tried to price at a level that was more about inventory valuation than quality, and 2022s were so high that the campaign was condensed to a dozen must-have wines. Add interest rate hikes and a declining market in Asia, and it’s not just a factor of waning U.S. interest, but Bordeaux has started to accumulate wines at a record pace. Futures is a pressure release valve for the industry, one that is very much needed right now.

Unfortunately, wine markets are not as nimble as other sectors, as it takes a lot of time for the consumer sentiment to get back to the top of the supply chain. Where we should have seen a sharp decline on the 2021s, the message is starting to actually take effect two years later. But we’re finally having the conversation, where 2023s will only work if they’re able to meet or break 2019 pricing. We’ll find out soon, as an early-to-market strategy has En Primeur sales starting on the 29th of April, about a month before usual.

More importantly, however, is whether the wine in 2023 is up to 2019 quality if it is selling at 2019 pricing. It’s fun to pick the most exciting campaign in the past half-decade and use that as a measuring stick. But with an abundance of great wine coming out of Bordeaux (and still just as much that’s not selling), the qualitative side will have to match as well.  That’s what we’re here to figure out–our team is on the ground in Bordeaux, ready to add some perspective to this curious vintage and campaign.

Many think this is a make-or-break campaign for Bordeaux. Perhaps it feels like that every year, as all the players involved want to see the highest level of engagement and success. But there’s certainly an undercurrent of anxiety in the region, as it seems like if more wine isn’t moving, something will literally break and fundamentally upset Bordeaux as we know it.

All that said, Bordeaux is in a very unique position. For all the blue-chip wines in other regions that become less affordable and approachable by the year, Bordeaux has the mechanism and scale to provide genuine value. This is an opportunity that not only serves existing collectors, but can engage people beyond a traditional client base and bridge the gap to a new generation. The thrill of collecting is the ride itself–the pursuit, the deal, the feeling that you’re getting a slice of something that truly belongs to you. That experience will always have people lining up, if you can provide it. Hopefully the 2023 vintage, however it shapes up, is all about bringing back the excitement of primeurs. 

- Ryan Moses, K&L Key Accounts Manager and Bordeaux Specialist